The COVID virus has morphed into a form that spreads more easily but is less severe, Louisiana health experts say. That means the virus, which once all but shut down the state and killed more than 19,000 people, could eventually become like the flu: relatively common, but also easy to treat, as long as people stay vaccinated.
Between July 10 and 16, 1,898 new cases were reported to the state, the Department of Health said. The week before, cases were at 1,192, and a month prior they were at 784.
Health officials believe the actual number of infections is much higher, because home testing has become widely available and the results of those tests are not reported to the state.
The Ochsner Health System has seen about 15 to 20 patients per day over the past six months. But as of this week, there were between 35-40 inpatient admissions.
“Over the past month and a half, what we have seen is a significant increase. Not pandemic levels, but still double the number,” said Dr. Aldo Russo, regional medical director for Ochsner Baton Rouge. ”But the good news is that people are not dying from this. The severity of the infection is not what we saw in the past.”
Still, despite the increase, infection rates are nowhere near where they have been before.
As of Friday morning, the LCMC Health system in New Orleans had about 15 patients who were COVID-19 positive.
“If you compare that to last year in the summertime, we were around 75 or so,” said Dr. Jeff Elder, medical director for emergency management at LCMC Health. “We’re in a much better place now than we were back then."
What is certain is that deaths from the virus — which has killed 19,066 people in Louisiana — are no longer a regular occurrence. Seven deaths were reported during that six-day period.
Hospitalizations remain relatively low too. Since May 3, the virus has put fewer than 100 in hospitals each day, down from an all-time high of 3,022 hospitalizations in August 2021.
The message from the Louisiana Department of Health, hospitals and doctors across the state is: Things are better, so let’s keep it that way.
“While COVID is still with us, the crisis is behind us,” the Department of Health said in a statement. “Louisiana has enjoyed a sustained period of low COVID hospitalizations, although there are some preliminary state and national indications that transmission rates of COVID may be beginning to increase again.
"Staying up to date on your vaccines, including getting the bivalent booster, is the best way to stay safe — and to enjoy the summer with confidence.”
What does COVID treatment look like in 2023?
The people doctors are seeing these days are those with other conditions exacerbated by COVID.
“People are requiring some ventilation support, oxygen supplementation, some help to manage their other comorbidities or other conditions they have. When somebody who has emphysema or heart disease gets COVID, it affects every organ and they become weaker,” Russo said.
Still, Ochsner Health hasn’t had a COVID death in Baton Rouge in more than three months, according to Russo.
Those who are hospitalized with COVID are typically given Remdesivir or Paxlovid, both antiviral medications. Remdesivier is administered intravenously, while Paxlovid is an oral medication given as an outpatient treatment. Around the country, monoclonal antibody therapy, once a popular COVID treatment, is no longer used.
“We realized there were side effects and it is not as effective,” Russo said.
A changing virus
But the biggest reasons doctors said COVID-19 deaths are down is because of immunity, and because of the virus itself.
As of November 2022, 94% of the U.S. population was estimated to have been infected by COVID at least once. Combined with vaccination, 97% were estimated to have some immunological exposure, according to the National Institute of Health.
And the virus has morphed into a different kind of beast.
“Nature is very smart, because what has happened is that the virus has sacrificed severity for spreading,” Russo said. "The virus is trying to survive like any species, and what it’s doing is sacrificing how much illness it can cause for the ability of being more present in the community.”
Eventually, he said, COVID will become as common as the flu, and that’s why vaccination is crucial.
A yearly booster
During the 2019-2020 influenza season, the CDC estimated that 38 million people across the country became sick with the flu, 18 million visited a health care provider for flu symptoms, 400,000 people were hospitalized, and 22,000 people died because of the flu. The flu vaccine has reduced the risk of flu illness in vaccinated people by 40% to 60%.
“Eventually what I think is going to happen is that COVID is going to become just like the flu, and people will be offered yearly boosters,” Russo said. “Mostly because we know the vaccine is extremely safe. Cases of adverse reactions with the vaccine are very, very small.”
At this point, the CDC recommends that everyone should get a bivalent booster, which became available last year. If you have done that already, you should have had four shots total — the initial two shots and two boosters. Elder said he thinks the CDC will recommend another booster sometime this fall.
“Pay attention to the news. If a bivalent booster comes out and is recommended by the CDC, please get that,” he said. “And if you haven’t been vaccinated, please get vaccinated.”
Russo agreed.
“We’re still vaccinating people for free. We’re still testing people,” he said. “Across the state we are making sure that people have those resources available for them to prevent further complications.”