The final game of the 2023/24 NFL regular season will be one of the biggest matchups of the week in terms of what’s at stake, as the Miami Dolphins are set to host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football. The winner of this Week 18 showdown will secure the AFC East division title and earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs.
Miami (11-5) has held the top spot in its division for much of the year after starting the season with three wins in the first three weeks. But there hasn't been much wiggle room down the stretch after suffering a 48-20 loss in Buffalo during Week 4.
A big reason for that is because the Bills (10-6) have been one of the hottest teams in the league of late. They have won four straight since their Week 13 bye, and now they are considered one of the top Super Bowl favorites heading into the postseason.
Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, is favoring Buffalo’s chances on the road in the regular season finale. The Bills are listed as 2.5-point favorites with an over/under of 48.5.
Let's take a closer look at the odds and highlight our favorite player prop plays for Bills-Dolphins:
Buffalo Bills (10-6) at Miami Dolphins (11-5)
Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 7 at 7:20 p.m. CT (NBC)
Point spread (from Caesars): Bills -2.5 (-120)
Over/under: 48.5
Moneyline: Bills -155, Dolphins +130
PLAYER PROP PICKS
Josh Allen OVER 0.5 interceptions (-120 at Caesars Sportsbook)
If not for the turnovers, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen would have had a serious case to be named this year’s MVP. But it’s hard to forget about all the turnovers, as he has thrown 16 interceptions on the year.
Allen has only finished three games this year without throwing an interception, a list that actually included the Week 4 win over Miami. But even though the Bills have been hot to end the year, Allen has had a knack for turning the ball over. He has thrown a pick in back-to-back games, despite completing just 15 passes in both contests.
Allen began the regular season with three interceptions on Monday Night Football against the New York Jets. It would be pretty poetic for him to end the year similarly.
James Cook UNDER 2.5 receptions (+133 at Caesars Sportsbook)
The Bills have developed a run game down the stretch, which is a big reason as to why they are playing so well right now. Running back James Cook, in particular, has 16+ rushing attempts in three straight games. He has accumulated nearly 300 yards on the ground during that stretch.
Unfortunately, Cook’s rushing success has taken away from his role as a receiver. He has been targeted a total of six times the last three weeks, recording three combined catches. Cook finished with -4 receiving yards last time out.
While projections have Cook at roughly this mark, the under being offered at +133 odds provides a solid edge ahead of kickoff.
Dalton Kincaid OVER 3.5 receptions (-108 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Dalton Kincaid props are back on the menu after he returned to form in Week 17, recording four receptions (on seven targets) for 87 yards during Buffalo’s 27-21 win over the New England Patriots. This performance came after he recorded just one total catch in the previous two weeks.
Aside from that two-week slump in December, Kincaid has really hit his stride in the back half of his rookie season. He has caught four or more passes in six of his last eight games, averaging over six receptions per game during that span. He should continue that level of performance in the final game of his rookie campaign.
With a projection of 4.45 receptions against Miami on Sunday, there is a 26% edge on this current over at Caesars Sportsbook.