The New Orleans Saints need help Sunday because of all the times they didn’t help themselves.
A play here or a play there, and they could have controlled their own destiny when the Atlanta Falcons come to the Caesars Superdome on Sunday.
But there were some games lost by Dennis Allen’s team that changed on pivotal plays that make you say "coulda, woulda, shoulda."
“That’s normal,” safety Tyrann Mathieu said. “You reflect on the season, and you think about the games that got away or the interceptions you dropped or the tackles you missed. You reflect a lot. That’s why those games early in the season are so important. They help you avoid situations like this.”
That situation is this: To win the NFC South, the Saints must beat the Falcons and also hope the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose to the 2-14 Carolina Panthers.
The Saints also have a wild-card possibility. The Saints would earn the No. 7 playoff spot with a win over the Falcons coupled with both of the following — a Chicago Bears win over the Green Bay Packers and an Arizona Cardinals victory over the Seattle Seahawks.
“You are what you’ve earned in this league, and this is what we’ve earned,” quarterback Derek Carr said. “The mindset is the same as it’s been the last few weeks. It’s playoff mentality, win or go home.”
While the Saints can’t think about what-ifs right now, we can.
So here’s a look back at five of those plays this season, listed chronologically. Had any of them gone another way, the Saints would be sitting in a much prettier position.
• Blake Grupe’s missed field goal vs. Packers (Sept. 24)
This game really shouldn’t have come down to a last-minute field goal. After all, the Saints held what looked like a commanding 17-0 lead. But here the Saints were at Lambeau Field, having blown that lead and now trailing 18-17. Grupe, the rookie kicker who started his career 6 of 6 on field goals, lined up for a 46-yard, go-ahead field goal with 1:10 remaining. The kick sailed wide right, and the Saints lost their first game of the season after a 2-0 start. Even if he had made it, the Packers very well could have driven down and took the lead with a field goal of their own. We’ll never know. But we do know that one game is the difference in the Packers now controlling their own destiny and the Saints not controlling theirs.
• Adam Prentice’s fumble vs. Bucs (Oct. 1)
The Saints were looking to bounce back after the collapse a week before in Green Bay. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers came to the Dome and took a 7-3 lead and were looking to go ahead 14-3. But Saints cornerback Isaac Yiadom intercepted a Baker Mayfield pass at the 1-yard line with 45 seconds left in the half. If the Saints could have made it to halftime trailing 7-3, they would have been in good shape. But that didn’t happen. The Saints handed the ball off to fullback Adam Prentice, who hadn’t had a carry since the Eagles game last season. Tampa Bay’s Antoine Winfield Jr. punched the ball out and recovered it at the 6-yard line. Tampa Bay scored two plays later for a 14-3 lead and went on to win 26-9, the Saints’ worst loss of the season. Who knows how that game would have turned out if the Saints hadn’t fallen into an 11-point hole?
• Zach Baun’s fumble vs. Texans (Oct. 15)
Baun did something that had never been done in the NFL: He intercepted a pass by Texans rookie sensation quarterback C.J. Stroud. It was a chance for the Saints to get some early momentum and break a scoreless tie. Instead, Baun fumbled on the return and gave the ball right back. The Texans took over and stole momentum with a 59-yard touchdown drive and went on to win 20-13. Baun’s fumble gets the nod in that game because it was one play. But the three straight Carr incompletions followed by an interception on the Saints' final drive deserve to be mentioned, too.
• Foster Moreau’s drop vs. Jaguars (Oct. 19)
Four days later, the Saints fought back after trailing the Jacksonville Jaguars 24-9 heading into the fourth quarter on a Thursday night in the Dome. They had a chance to tie it late, driving to the Jags’ 6-yard line with 30 seconds left. Carr threw a pass that looked like a sure touchdown to Foster Moreau, but Moreau wasn’t able to hold on. That was followed by a fourth-down incompletion. Who knows what would have happened if Moreau had scored? Would the Saints have gone for two and tried to win it in regulation? Would they have converted it? Or would they have kicked the extra point and taken their chances in overtime? We’ll never know.
• Carr’s pick-six vs. Falcons (Nov. 26)
The Saints, leading 3-0 and having just stuffed Atlanta on fourth and 2, drove to the Falcons’ 12-yard line. Carr threw a pass that Atlanta’s Jessie Bates picked off and returned 92 yards for a touchdown. What could have been a 10-0 Saints lead flipped to a 7-3 Falcons’ lead. It was one of five red-zone failures that day.
So there you have it. Five plays that easily could have swung this season the other way.
It goes to show just how thin the line can be from making the playoffs and not making it. Fortunately for the Saints, they still have a chance.
“It’s a damn good feeling given everything we’ve been through with the injuries, the late-game collapses,” Mathieu said. “It’s cool to be in this position. Until the clock says zero, we’ll just keep fighting.”
