The Saints and Bucs meet Sunday at Raymond James Stadium in a game that could determine the NFC South championship.
Both teams arrive on the brink of something. The Saints are a loss away from playoff elimination. The Bucs are a win away from clinching a third consecutive division title.
And if the Bucs take care of business, as expected, the repercussions could be major.
It wasn’t supposed to be this way. In fact, most people thought the Saints and Bucs would be on opposite ends of the rainbow.
Nine months ago, the franchises were in very similar spots.
Both had veteran rosters.
Both had major salary-cap issues.
Both were transitioning from superstar quarterbacks: the Bucs from Tom Brady and the Saints from Drew Brees, albeit two years earlier.
The clubs, though, employed different strategies. As a result, they find themselves on divergent trajectories.
The Saints went big. On March 6, they signed Derek Carr to a four-year, $150 million contract.
Nine days later, the Bucs took a more conservative — and cost-effective — approach. They signed Baker Mayfield to a one-year, $4 million deal.
At the time, the Saints were viewed as the clear winners of the NFC South offseason. Carr was a four-time Pro Bowler who was also heavily pursued by the Jets and Panthers. Mayfield, meanwhile, was viewed as nothing more than a stopgap option, having been cast off by three teams in the previous two years.
As such, the Saints were dubbed the clear favorites to win the division, and Vegas oddsmakers set their over/under win total at 9.5. The Bucs were picked to finish last by most experts (including yours truly) with a win total of 6.5.
The Bucs have had the last laugh.
Mayfield is on his way to a career year and has led the Bucs to four consecutive wins. He has completed 64.3% of his passes for 3,598 yards and 26 touchdowns with eight interceptions for a 96.2 passer efficiency rating, which ranks ninth in the NFL.
Mayfield, 28, has played so well and become so popular with teammates that Bucs general manager Jason Licht is hinting at a possible long-term extension this offseason.
Carr’s experience in New Orleans has been almost the exact opposite. While his numbers on paper are similar to Mayfield’s — 67.4 completion percentage, 3,417 yards, 19 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 93.6 passer rating (11th) — everything else has been dramatically different.
Carr has suffered through multiple injuries and struggled mightily in key situations such as the red zone and third down. He has engaged in multiple on-field shouting matches with teammates and has been booed regularly at home games. It doesn’t take Knute Rockne to see that he’s lost the confidence of some of his teammates.
But factoring in the finances is when the Carr-Mayfield decisions really start to skew the Bucs’ way. They’ve received better production for a fraction of the cost. In fact, the Saints are paying backup quarterback Jameis Winston the same amount the Bucs are paying Mayfield.
Mayfield’s bargain-basement price tag has allowed the Bucs to shed payroll and turn over key parts of the roster, replacing aging players with younger, faster athletes.
Consequently, they’ve managed to stay competitive in the present while improving the prospects of their short- and long-term futures.
It’s exactly what the Saints have tried to do each of the past two seasons but failed to accomplish.
Not only are the Saints staring at a third consecutive playoff-less season, but the club’s future looks even bleaker, thanks to an aging roster and messy salary cap. The Saints are projected to be an-NFL-worst $89 million over the cap next year. And Carr’s massive contract exacerbates the situation.
Unlike the deal the Saints gave Drew Brees in 2006, there’s no out clause in Carr’s contract after the first year in case things don’t work. Even worse, Carr’s deal includes a no-trade clause and a guaranteed payday of $30 million in the 2024 season.
The Saints and Carr are essentially married to each other for the foreseeable future. A divorce isn’t feasible until 2025 at the earliest.
The Saints thought their roster was good enough that they were just a quarterback away from being title contenders again. Carr, they were convinced, was the guy needed to return them to the promised land.
The Bucs were rumored to have interest in Carr, but they never seriously pursued him. Did they know something the Saints didn't?
The Carr signing is the kind of deal that can make or break careers. And before all is said and done, it just might do that in New Orleans.
