It’s the final week of the regular season, which means it’s almost as tough to pick games as it is in the final week of the preseason when you have never heard of half the players on the field.
As we enter Week 18, do the Rams and 49ers – both of whom are making the playoffs – actually give a darn? What about the other No. 1 seed, the Baltimore Ravens? Then there’s the Browns, who might bring back Brian Sipe at 74 years old for one game, as the Bengals play out the string.
And on and on and on. But yet, we’ll try to find an advantage as best we can. If for no other reason than to finish above the preseason goal of .550 against the spread (playing every game) for the season. To do that, we have to go at least 8-8 this week.
And, of course, there’s Dolphins and Bills for the AFC East title. Is that in my best bets? Let’s find out now, as we finish off the 2023 season – hopefully with a bang.
NOTES: All spreads, money lines and over/under totals (as of late Wednesday evening) are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, which is the official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com. Home team is listed in CAPS.
WEEK 18: THE TOP 5 BEST BETS
1, MIAMI (+3) over Buffalo / Sunday at 7:20 p.m.
It seems so easy to pick Buffalo, doesn’t it? Bradley Chubb is out for the season. Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert very well could miss this game. Tua has a bum shoulder. NO WAY the Dolphins can win this game. The Bills are gonna blow them out of the building.
… The following has been a public-service announcement by Aunt Mabel and all of her friends. If it’s too easy, there’s a reason why. FYI, this won’t even be a little easy.
Miami has continued to follow their trend all season long, so no one should be surprised they got blown out in Baltimore last week. (And they’ll get beat up in the playoffs on the road in the postseason, as well.) However, Mike McDaniel is 13-3 at home in his coaching career and hasn’t lost at Hard Rock Stadium by more than a field goal since Christmas Day 2022 against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
For most of the season, the Dolphins have been the better team, and while I have a Bills futures ticket and still think they could make noise in the playoffs, I simply can’t ignore trends and where the public on this one.
Miami getting points at home seems sort of silly to me, as this line says the Bills are about 5 points better. Does anyone believe that? I don’t.
Score: Dolphins 30, Bills 27 (Total: Over 49.5)
2, Teaser, Falcons and Chiefs
Teaser explanation: At most books, a bettor can parlay two teams in a “teaser” and get 6 points of cushion for each bet. However, it costs -125 to play and – like a parlay – both legs must hit to cash the ticket.
Atlanta (+9) over NEW ORLEANS / Sunday at noon
In the grand scheme of things, there are more disappointing teams than these two, but one might be hard-pressed to find more mirror images of one another – especially in the same division. And now it comes down to this: The loser is out, and the winner, well, they’re probably out, too. Still, that won’t stop either one from fighting.
There are multiple reasons why taking Atlanta in a teaser is great value: They’ve already shown they can defeat the Saints (winning 24-15 in Atlanta on Nov. 26), the games between these two are usually close, before last week they hadn’t lost by more than eight points since Oct. 1, and they’re fighting not only for their playoff lives but likely for the professional life of their coach, Arthur Smith.
Meanwhile, who is going to put a whole lot of faith in the Saints that they can string together two of their top performances of the season in back-to-back weeks?
There is more hope in New Orleans than in Atlanta (that’s not saying much), and the Saints should win. But thinking they’ll repeat Week 17 at Tampa probably is a stretch. Scroll down to the “other picks” section for whether I think the Bucs will be upset and who’s going to the playoffs from this division.
Score: Saints 21, Falcons (+3) 20 (Total: Under 42.5)
Kansas City (+9.5) over LA CHARGERS / Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
This one doesn’t need a whole lot of explanation, as I don’t really care who is and isn’t playing for the Chiefs. The Chargers have lost seven of their past eight (and nine of 12) for a reason: They cannot wait until this nightmare of a season is over, and they have a chance to hit the reset button.
Los Angeles will once again start Easton Stick, who likely will be without his top three receivers, while Austin Ekeler hasn’t had more than 100 yards of total offense since Week 10 and in only three games total all season.
While the Chiefs will be going with Blaine Gabbert behind center, and he likely will be without a few of his starters, as well, one can still expect them to score in the upper teens or low-20s, and that should be plenty to – at the bare minimum – keep it close.
Score: Chargers 19, Chiefs (+3.5) 17 (Total: Over 35)
3, Seattle (-2.5) over ARIZONA / Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
Plain and simple, this line makes no sense to me. We did well taking the Seahawks in the first meeting when they were -8 at home in October, and we’re going back to the well in a game that Seattle HAS to have to make the playoffs.
Really though, my biggest question is: When did the four-win Cardinals become so respected? I get it – they defeated a banged-up, Philadelphia team that looked lost. If this gets to -3, I might not be as anxious to make it a best bet, but this seems like great value at under a field goal.
PS Arizona has allowed 27 or more points in three straight games and four out of their past five. The Seahawks should have no trouble putting up points.
Score: Seahawks 31, Cardinals 21 (Total: Over 47.5)
4, Teaser, NY Jets (+7.5) over NEW ENGLAND and UNDER 36.5 / Sunday at noon
Teaser explanation: At most books, a bettor can parlay two teams in a “teaser” and get 6 points of cushion for each bet. However, it costs -125 to play and – like a parlay – both legs must hit to cash the ticket.
Let’s get real: Does anyone expect either of these teams who don’t give a rat’s keister to score 18 points in this game?
In case you were thinking “maybe,” let’s call on our inner meteorologist to make a prediction. … High in the low 30s, 90% chance of snow with winds of 15-25 mph. Oh, and we don’t need a meteorologist to know Trevor Siemian and Bailey Zappe are starting at quarterback.
Lastly, in what might be the last game for Bill Belichick as coach of the Patriots, New England hasn’t won a game by more than a touchdown since beating Arizona, 27-13, in December 2022. And they have won just once at home all season – a fluke victory over Buffalo.
Neither team will care, and neither team will put up many points in a game that might be over by 3:30 p.m. Eastern time.
Score: Patriots (-1.5) 12, Jets 10 (Total: Under 30.5)
Saturday at 3:30 p.m.
5, UNDER 35.5 in Pitttsburgh at BALTIMORE / Saturday at 3:30 p.m.
This seems like an obvious pick to go with the Steelers in a game they HAVE to have to make their comeback complete and do what Mike Tomlin does this time of year – find a way to make the playoffs. However, I cannot get past the fact Harbaughs refuse to lose, and despite resting key starters, including Lamar Jackson, I think the Ravens will be on their ‘A’ game.
I also think the Steelers will have trouble scoring, despite they look much better with Mason Rudolph back there. And I think I am going to miss by one when I said back in August that Pittsburgh would win 10 games this season. (Here’s the proof …)
Instead, the best way to attack this game in the forecasted rain/snow/slush mix in Baltimore is to play the under, because while I am not sure the Ravens will pull the upset, I am much more sure they will make it tough as hell on their division rivals to earn a spot into the postseason.
Score: Ravens (+4) 10, Steelers 6
OTHER PICKS
Saturday at 7:15 p.m.
INDIANAPOLIS (+1) 26, Houston 24: There might not be a more cool story in the NFL this season than the Houston Texans, who have proved a whole lot of people wrong that they couldn’t turn things around right away with CJ Stroud and DeMeco Ryans.
That being said, the Colts have done it with a new coach, as well, and a backup quarterback in Gardner Minshew. I have doubted both of these teams for much of the year, but I have to pick someone.
I am going with Indy because they were a one-point favorite in Houston in Week 2, but now are underdogs at home even though they have the same record – in a potential playoff before the playoffs. (And Mabel is all over Houston.) (Over 47.5)
Sunday at noon
Tampa Bay 19, CAROLINA (+4) 17: I have been following the Saints since I am old enough to remember following the Saints as a little kid back in the early 1970s. Except for SOME OF the Sean Payton years, when they have needed (stuff) to happen, it just hasn’t. And this seems like heartbreak city for Who Dats everywhere (or at least the ones still rooting for their team to win), who will watch a dude named Chase McLaughlin end their season with a game-winning 52-yard field goal. (How’s that for being specific. Yes, I have seen this movie before.)
In other words, Baker Mayfield grits it out and does just enough to send the Bucs to the playoffs for the right to get their brains bashed in by the Philadelphia Eagles next weekend in the wild-card round. (So maybe it’s a blessing?) (Under 37.5)
CINCINNATI (-7) 24, Cleveland 10: Joe Flacco is resting, and he won’t be the only one. Amari Cooper likely won’t play. Same goes for Kareem Hunt, Elijah Moore, David Njoku and who knows else? In other words, one team cares, while the other one doesn’t.
“But Derry, why do the Bengals care?” Dude, I have no clue. I just know they do. Who Dey. (Under 37.5)
Jacksonville (-5.5) 30, TENNESSEE 13: This is not one I am running to the window to play. That being said, Trevor Lawrence is trending towards starting, and I am not sure the Titans have any motivation to win this whatsoever.
Sure, Mike Vrabel WANTS to win, and this could be the final game for Derrick Henry as a Titan. However, Henry is a shell of his former self, and come to think of it, so are the Titans.
It seems like when it’s on the line, Doug Pederson and Lawrence find a way, don’t they? (Over 40)
DETROIT (-3.5) 33, Minnesota 19: This is simply a bet that Dan Campbell is pissed off enough to care when he shouldn’t care. In other words, if someone important gets hurt, I’m certain people in Michigan will blame the refs. (Over 45.5)
Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
Philadelphia (-5) 23, NY GIANTS 13: I almost took this as a best bet, as I think the Eagles will come out with one of their best efforts of the season after quite a few duds.
However, with the fact Dallas could go up big early, that could have Nick Sirianni thinking he wants to rest his starters in the second half if he thinks there is no path to the NFC East title. That was enough to have me back off just a little. That, and the potential bad weather, which showers even more uncertainty here. (Under 42)
Dallas 27, WASHINGTON (+13) 23: Unlike most of the other coaches who already have been fired or are on the hottest of hot seats, the Commanders seem to care about Ron Rivera. And considering this is his final game, it would be a surprise – at least to me – if they let him go out with a whimper.
Clearly, it would be one of the shockers of the year if the Cowboys straight up lost this one with a chance to clinch the NFC East and the No. 2 seed, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to have Jerry Jones biting on his fingernails well into the fourth quarter. (Over 46)
SAN FRANCISCO (-4) 20, LA Rams 13: I went back and forth on whether I wanted to put this one in best bets, as this might seem like a meaningless game on the periphery, but it really could have major impacts – especially on the Rams.
I left it out of the top 5, because while San Francisco has the top seed in the NFC locked up, Los Angeles only has a playoff seed in the bag. They are the 6 seed and will go to Detroit if they win, but would be the 7 seed and likely go to Dallas if they lose and Green Bay wins. Big difference.
Seemingly that would be enough for the Rams to try and win on Sunday, but that went out of the window when Coach Sean McVay locked in on sitting Matthew Stafford, going with Carson Wentz at quarterback, instead.
In a rivalry game where each team is playing their backups, I am going with the better team that has a chance to make a statement. And that’s the 49ers. (Under 41.5)
LAS VEGAS (-2.5) 15, Denver 12: Another one that is way too tough to predict and a complete stay away. One would think this would be super low-scoring, as Antonio Pierce will have his defense ready to stop Jarrett Stidham, while Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph likely is fighting for his job. (It might be too late?)
In other words, I like the under, but this is strictly a guess when it comes to the spread. Let’s go with nine field goals and no touchdowns. (Under 38)
GREEN BAY (-3) 27, Chicago 20: The Packers control their fate to make the playoffs. The Bears have played WAY over their heads the past few weeks. With weather at Lambeau basically a non-factor for early January, I think I will go with LaFleur over Eberflus here. (Over 44)
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HOW WE DOIN’?
Note: TIES ARE NOT COUNTED IN MY RECORD, which could result in a different total of games in the “straight up” and “against the spread” categories, as well as with totals.
AGAINST THE SPREAD
Week 17 best bets: 3-2. Season top picks: 45-38 (.542).
Week 17 all picks: 12-4. Season all picks: 136-110 (.553).
STRAIGHT UP (no spread)
Week 17: 13-3. Season: 155-100 (.606).
OVER/UNDER TOTALS
Week 17: 4-12. Season: 143-109 (.567).
SAINTS PICKS
Week 17 pick: Rams (-4) 30, Saints 21. (Actual: Rams 30, Saints 22.) Straight up: W, 8-7. Against spread: W, 8-6. Total (Over 46): W, 9-5.