The New Orleans Saints season will be on the line in Week 18 against the division rival Atlanta Falcons.
The Saints still have a shot at the NFC South division title as well as a wildcard berth, but the only way they can accomplish either is with a win over the Falcons.
The oddsmakers at Caesars Sportsbook have the Saints as 3-point favorites in this win-or-go-home matchup, and they’ll also need the Bucs to lose to win the NFC South or have both the Packers and Seahawks lose to secure a wildcard berth.
While the Saints current playoffs chances are around 25%, the bottom line is that they still have hope heading into the regular season finale, and I’ll break down who I like in this matchup along with a best bet.
Reasons to like the Saints
The Saints are coming off their most complete performance of the season in Week 17 after defeating the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers and appear to have momentum on their side heading into this week’s must-win scenario. The Saints offense has its share of inconsistencies, but Derek Carr has shown improvement in the second half of the season and should be able to perform better than he did in the Saints first matchup against the Falcons in which he threw no touchdowns and an interception. The Saints defense delivered a dominant effort against the Bucs in which they were able to start fast and force Baker Mayfield into mistakes, and they should be able to have more success this week against a struggling Falcons offense that’s got a banged up quarterback in Taylor Heinicke.
Reasons to like the Falcons
The Falcons playoff chances are even thinner than the Saints, but they’re still alive despite an ugly loss to the Bears last week and were able to defeat the Saints in their first matchup against them. Heinicke and the passing game have yet to get into a consistent rhythm, but the Falcons running game can be dangerous with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier leading the way, and they’ll likely give the Saints a heavy dose of Robinson considering how much success he had against them in Week 12. The Falcons defense was able to shut down Derek Carr and the Saints offense for the most part that week, and they should be able to bounce back this week after an uncharacteristically poor showing.
The bottom line
The Saints appear to be in position to win and possibly sneak into the playoffs, but their inconsistent results throughout the season leave me skeptical. The Saints offense still hasn’t evolved to the point to where they can be counted upon to outscore someone, and the defense has taken advantage of a soft schedule to where their numbers look solid due to racking up against teams such as the Giants and Patriots. The Falcons showed they could slow the Saints down and will likely do so again despite having less overall talent and have an underrated weapon in kicker Younghoe Koo to where I see the Saints season ending on a walk-off field goal for the second-straight year.
The pick: Falcons 20, Saints 19
Betting line: Falcons (+3, +143) at Saints (-170), 42 O/U
Best bet: Falcons +3 (+100)