The Saints and Falcons play a huge game Sunday at the Caesars Superdome. A division title and playoff berth are on the line. And the Saints will go into this high-stakes clash without two of their mainstays.
Marshon Lattimore and Michael Thomas will not play as they continue to mend from injuries. It wouldn’t be a surprise if neither was even at the game.
Since being hurt against the Vikings in Week 10, Lattimore and Thomas essentially have been M.I.A. Their lockers, located at opposite ends of the team’s locker room, have sat conspicuously dormant for weeks. Team officials obviously have monitored their conditions, but for the most part, Lattimore and Thomas have been out of sight and out of mind as the Saints have fought and clawed for a playoff berth.
And with the end of the season looming, it’s possible, if not likely, that both have played their last game in New Orleans. And I don't think that's a bad thing.
That might be an unpopular opinion, given the multiple Pro Bowl invitations and All-Pro honors the pair has earned. But the Saints will be better off without them going forward.
Moving on from Lattimore is complicated. The five-year, $97 million contract he signed in 2021 is problematic. But the Saints recently restructured his deal to make it more feasible to trade him. And rest assured, this wasn’t done by accident. Lattimore’s compliance speaks volumes, as well.
Lattimore has missed 17 games the past two seasons because of injuries. These things happen. The NFL is a violent game. But Lattimore’s tepid recovery process the past two years has become a source of frustration on Airline Drive, and during that span the Saints have learned they can survive and even thrive without him.
The development of young cornerbacks Paulson Adebo, Alontae Taylor and Isaac Yiadom has made Lattimore a luxury item. He is one of the few trade assets the team has on its aging roster.
But moving him would come at a significant cost, one that might prove to be prohibitive. The Saints would incur a $30 million hit to their salary cap if they dealt Lattimore before June 1. A trade after June 1 essentially would divide the cap hit over the next two seasons and make the transaction much more palatable. Nevertheless, the door is now open to a deal. And a trade would make sense for both parties.
Shutdown corners are prized in the pass-happy NFL, and the soon-to-be-28-year-old Lattimore can still play at an elite level when healthy. There’d be a robust market for his services. The Saints likely could pick up a second-day draft pick for Lattimore while creating future cap flexibility.
If they can make the math work, moving Lattimore this offseason should be a no-brainer.
The situation with Thomas is decidedly less complicated.
When the Saints restructured Thomas’ contract a year ago, they did so with the future in mind. Because of the way the contract was structured, the deal essentially served as a means to one of two ends: Thomas would either be extended prior to the start of the 2024 season or designated a post-June 1 cut and become a free agent in 2024.
If the Saints are smart, they’ll take the second option and move on from Thomas.
Playing on effectively a one-year deal this season, Thomas knew a potential multiyear contract extension would depend on him staying healthy, producing on the field and keeping his nose clean off of it. None of those things happened.
His final numbers were pedestrian: 39 receptions for 448 yards and one touchdown. His average of 2.6 yards after the catch was the worst on the team and ranked near the bottom of all receivers in the league.
What’s more, he created a distraction and black eye for the organization by getting arrested on battery charges Nov. 11. Two days later, he suffered a season-ending knee injury. Three weeks later, he irked team officials further by posting some incriminating tweets about quarterback Derek Carr on his social media platforms.
Thomas has not been seen or heard from since, and Saints officials have kept things close to the vest about him publicly.
Asked about Thomas’ progress this week, Allen had little to say beyond, “He’s not ready yet.”
Thomas’ absence hasn’t undermined the offense. In fact, the Saints have played better without him, as rookie A.T. Perry and tight end Juwan Johnson effectively have replaced Thomas in the route tree.
Most of Carr’s relevant numbers — completion percentage (71.8% from 65.8%), passer rating (103.4 from 89.8), touchdown-to-interception ratio (11:4 from 10:4) — are better without Thomas than they were with him in the lineup. Carr’s red-zone completion percentage has soared to 66.7% in the past six games. It was 43.9% when Thomas played.
Better protection and play-calling, along with Carr’s return to good health, certainly have contributed to this improvement. But it’s also fair to wonder if Carr is playing freer and more decisively without having to worry about feeding the ball to the volatile, hyper-competitive Thomas on a regular basis.
With that dynamic removed from the equation, Carr has spread the ball around and completed passes to an average of 8.5 receivers a game. In 10 games with Thomas in the lineup, that number was 7.1.
Saints officials undoubtedly have noted the change in the effectiveness of the offense. It makes the decision to move on from the high-maintenance Thomas even easier.
Thomas and Lattimore were elite players at one time. For years, their excellence on the field made the Saints better, and they served the organization well. But those days are over.
The return hasn’t met the investment in recent years, and they're no longer setting the kind of example the Saints need or want for the young, impressionable players on the roster. A fresh start elsewhere would probably do them both well.
The Saints need to move on without Lattimore and Thomas. In essence, they already have.
